In the Club With a Dub

Attackerman: "Let's say you're a high-ranking figure in the Iranian religious-political establishment.

For 30 years, you've used U.S. bellicosity as an excuse for social repression. "How can we relax restrictions on organizing and demonstrating? After all, the Great Satan schemes to destroy Iran!" is your battle cry against student activists and trade unions. To an international audience, you insist baroquely that the U.S. won't take reasonable steps for discussion on issues of mutual concern.

But then all of a sudden, the U.S. elects a president who says he wants to negotiate without preconditions during his first year in office. You're in a pretty serious bind now, aren't you?"

This is why people should read Spencer Ackerman.  This point simply illustrates the validity of the claim "Tough does not necessarily equal Best" in foreign relations dealings, particularly with oppressive regimes.  It further illustrates that you don't need to launch a decade-long, trillion dollar invasion/occupation to promote democracy in certain countries.  

The Podhoretzes and Scheunemanns of the world will call this approach... well, it won't be good, whatever they call it. But we shouldn't forget that, the positive argument for engagement totally aside, there exists a strong negative argument against U.S. bellicosity as well.  the situation neoconservative foreign policy has given us - 130,000 troops bogged down in Iraq, with exactly zero additional capacity to respond to military threats save air power - doesn't give our foreign policy apparatus many (credible) options other than negotiation.  Many seem not to realize that the top priority for authoritarian governments isn't advancement of national interest (i.e., avoiding massive U.S. airstrikes) but, rather, maintaining a hold on power.  We don't have the incentive, or the ground capacity more importantly, to topple the Iranian regime Iraq-style and air strikes would only retard, not eliminate, their nuclear program while simultaneously reinforcing the regime's grip on political power.  Best the regime be left with the problem of dealing with the yearnings of it's own citizens than utilizing empty U.S. rhetoric.

Also, this whole matter makes me relieved we aren't now listening to President-elect John McCain spout of on the dire need to kill Iranians.